Worksheet · Strategy Health Check
Name the uncertainties and take a position on each
Some outside forces move in a known direction. Others could go either way. This sheet separates the two and puts a written position on the few that matter. It builds the Competent step of the check:
The two or three outside forces that could reshape the business, a trend, a policy shift or a dependency, are named, with a stated position on each.
Step 1. List and sort the outside forces
Look at customers, competitors, technology, regulation, suppliers and any single dependency, such as one large customer.
| Force | Direction known (trend) or open (uncertainty)? | Effect on profit if it goes against us (high, medium, low) | How uncertain (high, medium, low) |
|---|---|---|---|
Build the trends into every plan. Carry the two or three high-effect, high-uncertainty forces to step 2.
Step 2. Take a position
- Bet: commit now, because you are confident of the direction.
- Hedge: take a small step that pays under more than one outcome.
- Watch: do nothing yet, but name the trigger that would make you act.
| Uncertainty | Position | What we do now | Indicator | Trigger | What we do if it fires | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| e.g. A regulator caps fees on our main product | Hedge | Pilot a fee-free version in one state | Consultation papers | Draft rule published | Launch the fee-free version nationally | GM product |
Step 3. List the no-regret moves
Write down the actions that make sense whichever way each uncertainty falls. Start them now.
Done when: the two or three forces are named in the strategy, each with a written position, an indicator and an owner.
Adapted from our own scenario method (EY-PJP, 2021).
From the Strategy Health Check. Your report links the sheet for each of its moves.