Worksheet: Size the pipeline above the target

Most programmes set a number, then find ideas that add up to less. This sheet tests whether the target needs a new way of working and whether the pipeline covers it. It builds the Competent step of the check:

The target could not be reached by trying harder at today's business, and the initiative pipeline adds up to it.

Step 1. What trying harder delivers

Measure	Current course, year 3	Trying harder with today's model, year 3	Target, year 3	Gap the programme must close
e.g. EBITDA	$31m	$38m	$50m	$12m

If the target is no higher than trying harder would deliver, it does not need a programme.

Step 2. The pipeline by lever and area

List every initiative with an estimate. Give each one lever and one area, so no benefit is counted twice.

Initiative	Lever (price, volume, cost, capital)	Area or unit	Owner	Run-rate value ($m)	Confidence (high, medium, low)
e.g. Close two regional warehouses	cost	Supply	GM operations	2.4	medium

Step 3. Does it cover the target?

Line	$m
Target
Pipeline, all initiatives
Pipeline, high confidence only
Margin above target (pipeline less target)

Size the pipeline well above the target, because some initiatives will not land. If the pipeline sits below the target, keep looking before launch.

Done when: the target sits above what trying harder would deliver, and the listed initiatives add up to at least the target.

Adapted from our own transformation summary (Forty 2, 2025).