Worksheet: Post-evaluate last year's ten biggest promotions

The volume on deal looks like proof, but some of it was bought early and some came from your other products. This sheet runs your ten biggest promotions of last year through one standard sheet. The ones that did not pay come off this year's calendar. It builds the Competent step of the check:

Sell-out uplift, stock-up and what it took from our other products are estimated for major promotions with a standard tool, and the losers are stopped.

Use sell-out (scan or retailer sales) where you have it. What the retailer ordered for the deal is sell-in, and it overstates the uplift.

Step 1. The volume

Baseline: units a week in comparable weeks without a promotion.
Stock-up: the dip in the weeks after, when shoppers and the retailer had already bought.
Taken from other products: sales lost on your own nearby packs and flavours.

Promotion	Account	Weeks	Baseline units a week	Promoted units a week	Sell-out uplift (units)	Dip in the weeks after (units)	Units taken from other products	Net extra units
e.g. Brand A 500g, half price	Grocer B	2	10,000	34,000	48,000	9,000	6,000	33,000

Step 2. The money

Promotion	Gross profit in promotion weeks (A)	Gross profit at baseline for those weeks (B)	Profit lost in the weeks after (C)	Profit lost on other products (D)	Fixed fees and display paid (E)	Result (A − B − C − D − E)

Step 3. Was it executed?

Promotion	Display or catalogue agreed	Seen in store?	Shelf price matched the agreed price?

A promotion that ran without its display tells you nothing about the mechanic.

Step 4. Decide

Promotion	Result ($)	Repeat, change or drop	Change for this year (depth, timing, mechanic)

A promotion with a negative result comes off this year's calendar. Keep it only if it has a written job, such as a launch.

Done when: your ten biggest promotions have uplift, stock-up and losses on other products estimated on one sheet, and the losers are off the calendar.

Adapted from our own revenue management workshop (Deloitte, 2015).