Worksheet · B2C via trade: Brand Pricing Health Check
Re-estimate elasticity for your ten biggest items
Shelf price plotted against scan volume mixes in promotions and the retailer's own moves. Shoppers judge a shelf price against something: what they paid last time, or the nearest competitor or own-brand pack. This sheet names that reference and re-estimates elasticity for your ten biggest items before the next price-point review. Then it picks store clusters for a test. It builds the Competent step of the check:
Elasticity is estimated from scan data, or invoice history where there is none, against a stated reference price (the last price paid, or the nearest comparable competitor or own-brand price), by pack and channel.
Step 1. Name the reference price for your top pack
| Pack | Reference price (shopper's last paid price, nearest competitor, or own brand) | Why this one | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|
| e.g. Our 1 kg pack | Own-brand 1 kg on the same shelf | Shoppers see both at once | Scan data |
Step 2. Choose the data
- Scan data by week, retailer and pack: use it where you have it. It shows what shoppers paid and bought.
- No scan data: use invoice history by customer and pack. It shows retailer orders, not shopper sales, so smooth out stock builds before promotions.
- Either way: remove promotion weeks, out-of-stock weeks, ranging changes and holiday weeks, or model them separately.
Use the shelf price change shoppers saw. Your list price change is not the same thing.
Step 3. Estimate by pack and channel
| Item (pack) | Channel | Data (scan or invoice) | Change against the reference (%) | Weeks | Unit change (%) | Elasticity (unit % ÷ price %) | What you removed | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| e.g. Item 2, 500 g | Grocery | Scan | +5% | 12 | -6% | -1.2 | Three promotion weeks | Medium |
Continue to ten. Record pharmacy, convenience and online apart from grocery where the data allows.
Step 4. Decide which store clusters deserve a test
The retailer sets the shelf price. Propose a test to the buyer as a recommended price, never a condition. Ask a lawyer where a case is unclear.
| Item | Question the estimate cannot answer | Test store cluster or retailer | Matched control cluster | Price point change | Weeks | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Done when: elasticity for your ten biggest items is estimated by pack and channel against a written reference price. It comes from scan data, or invoice history where there is none.
Adapted from our own elasticity study (Deloitte, 2015).
From the B2C via trade: Brand Pricing Health Check. Your report links the sheet for each of its moves.