Worksheet: Run one clean price test this quarter

Looking at what happened after a change mixes in season, weather and marketing. A test with a control tells you what the price did. This sheet turns the next pricing debate into one test, and rolls out only what the test proves. It builds the Competent step of the check:

Meaningful changes are piloted (stores, regions, cohorts) before rollout when feasible.

Step 1. Sort the ideas

Idea	Risk	Size of prize	Difficulty	Do, test or explore
e.g. Raise prices on the ten least price-sensitive products	Medium	High	Low	Test

Do: low risk, clear case. Roll it out and watch it.
Test: real prize, real doubt. Pilot it.
Explore: not ready. Gather data first.

Step 2. Write the hypothesis

Most price tests check one of two things. Discipline: are we giving away more than we need to? Sensitivity: does this group react less than we assume?

Hypothesis	Why we think so	Result that would prove it wrong
e.g. Customers booking more than 60 days ahead react less to price	Fewer alternatives compared at that stage	Conversion drops more than 3 points at +5%

Step 3. Design the test

Item	Plan
Test group (stores, regions, customer cohort)
Matched control group, and how it was matched
Price change
Weeks (at least one full sales cycle)
Measure (units, margin dollars, conversion)
When we stop early
Owner

Step 4. Result and decision

Test	Test group result	Control result	Difference	Roll out, change or drop	Decided by

Done when: the next meaningful price change is piloted against a control group before it is rolled out, and the result is written down.

Adapted from our own price test approach (PJP, 2020).